基于系统仿真模拟的三峡库区生态承载力分区动态评价
Dynamic Zoned Assessment of Ecological Carrying Capacity of Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on System Simulation
-
摘要: 针对现有生态承载力评价研究中时间动态性、空间差异性考虑不足等问题,引入系统动力学(SD)模型,围绕生态承载力关键指标实施三峡库区分单元的系统仿真模拟和预测,整合生态承载力综合评价方法,对不同控制单元承载力状况进行动态评价. 结果表明:①2010年三峡库区生态承载力指数为0.55,为弱可承载状态. 生态承载力限制因素分析显示,长江嘉陵江重庆市辖区控制单元、长江涪陵区万州区控制单元主要受制于资源、环境要素,其他3个控制单元(澎溪河开县控制单元、长江云阳县巫山县控制单元、长江恩施州宜昌市控制单元)主要受制于社会、经济要素. ②现有发展趋势下,2010—2025年三峡库区生态承载力指数为0.48~0.57,呈先增后减的趋势,拐点出现在2015年附近,整体亦处于弱可承载状态. 2015年后,以资源、环境为主要限制因素的2个控制单元生态承载力指数开始逐年下降;以社会、经济为主要限制因素的其他3个控制单元生态承载力指数则呈延续上升态势. ③综合调控方案下,三峡库区生态承载力指数在2015年达到0.60,由弱可承载提升为基本可承载;至2018年,所有控制单元均达到基本可承载,生态承载力指数为0.60~0.76. 可见,综合调控方案对各控制单元人口、经济、环境、资源因素的调控行之有效.Abstract: In view of the inadequate consideration of temporal and spatial heterogeneity in current Ecological Carrying Capacity (ECC) assessments, a system dynamic (SD) model was introduced in the present study. Focusing on the key indicators of ECC, simulation and prediction for each control unit in Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) Area was completed. Using comprehensive evaluation method of ECC, dynamic evaluation for different control units was realized. The results showed that:1) The TGR ECC index was 0.55 in 2010, showing a weak bearing state. According to the analysis of constraint factors, the ECCs of two control units, namely Chongqing City of Yangtze-Jialing River control unit and Fuling-Wanzhou district of Yangtze River control unit, were mainly limited by resource and environment elements. However, those of the other three control units, namely Kaixian County of Pengxi River control unit, Yunyang-Wushan county of Yangtze River control unit and Enshi-Yichang City of Yangtze River control unit, were more subject to social and economic elements. 2) Under the scenario of maintaining existing development trends, the TGR ECC index was within 0.48-0.57 from 2010-2025. It was on the whole still in the weak bearing state, but the index would first increase and then decrease, with a break point in 2015. In particular, the ECCs of the two control units limited by resource and environment elements would decrease after 2015. The ECCs of the other three control units limited by social and economic elements would continue to increase after 2015. 3) Under the scenario of implementing an integrated control program, the TGR ECC index would reach 0.60 in 2015, showing an improvement from weak bearing state to basic bearing state. In 2018, all control units would be in the basic bearing state, with the index varying from 0.60 to 0.76. This proves the effectiveness of the control program for each control unit in population, economy, environment and resources factors.
-
[1] 高吉喜.新世纪生态环境管理的理论与方法.法制与管理,2002(7):9-14.GAO Jixi.Theory and method of eco-environmental management in new century.Legal System and Management,2002(7):9-14. [2] OHA K,JEONGA Y,LEEB D,et al.Determining development density using the urban carrying capacity assessment system.Landscape and Urban Planning,2005,3:1-15. [3] FERREIRA J G,HAWKINS A J S,MONTEIRO P,et al.Integrated assessment of ecosystem-scale carrying capacity in shellfish growing areas.Aquaculture,2008,5(1):138-151. [4] 徐强,陈来.巢湖流域生态承载力定量评价研究.中国水土保持,2010(6):52-55.XU Qiang,CHEN Lai.Quantitative evaluation of ecological carrying capacity of Chaohu Lake Basin.Soil and Water Conservation in China,2010(6):52-55. [5] 徐琳瑜,康鹏.工业园区规划环境影响评价中的环境承载力方法研究.环境科学学报,2013,3(3):918-930.XU Linyu,KANG Peng.Evaluation of environment carrying capacity on development planning of an industrial park.Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2013,3(3):918-930. [6] 王中根,夏军.区域生态环境承载力的量化方法研究.长江职工大学学报,1999,6(4):9-12.WANG Zhonggen,XIA Jun.Quantitative analysis on bearing capacity of ecological environment.Journal of Changjiang Vocational University,1999,6(4):9-12. [7] 彭再德,杨凯,王云.区域环境承载力研究方法初探.中国环境科学,1996,6(1):6-10.PENG Zaide,YANG Kai,WANG Yun.The primary exploring of the research method of AESC.China Environmental Science,1996,6(1):6-10. [8] WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,ERB K H,et al.Ecological footprint time series of Austria,the Plulippines,and South Korea for 1961-1999:comparing the conventional approach to an “actual land area” approach.Land Use Policy,2004,1:261-269. [9] WACKERNAGEL M,MONFREDA C,SCLMLZ N B,et al.Calculating national and global ecological footprint time series:resolving concephial challenges.Land Use Policy,2004,1:271-278. [10] RAJARAMA T,DAS T.Screening for EIA in India:enhancing effectiveness through ecological carrying capacity approach.Journal of Environmental Management,2011,2:140-148. [11] GUYONDET T,ROY S,KOUTITONSKY V G,et al.Integrating multiple spatial scales in the carrying capacity assessment of a coastal ecosystem for bivalve aquaculture.Journal of Sea Research,2010,4(3):341-359. [12] NAMA J,CHANGA W,KANGB D.Carrying capacity of an uninhabited island off the southwestern coast of Korea.Ecological Modelling,2010,1:2102-2107. [13] 王俊英,杜金辉,吕培茹,等.山东省水生态环境承载力探讨.山东大学学报(工学版),2008,8(5):94-98.WANG Junying,DU Jinhui,L Peiru,et al.The evaluation of water eco-environmental carrying capacity in Shandong Province.Journal of Shandong University(Engineering Science),2008,8(5):94-98. [14] 刘启明,张晨岚,林锦美,等.厦门城市水环境承载力综合指标体系评价.华侨大学学报(自然科学版),2008,9(1):94-96.LIU Qiming,ZHANG Chenlan,LIN Jinmei,et al.The study of bearing capacity of water environment in Xiamen.Journal of Huaqiao University (Natural Science),2008,9(1):94-96. [15] HABERL H,ERB K H,KRAUSMANN F.How to calculate and interpret ecological footprints for long periods of time:the case of Austria 1926-1995.Ecological Economics,2001,8:25-45. [16] 朱银银,柴磊.基于系统动力学的某市水环境承载力动态变化研究.水利科技与经济,2010,6(9):1039-1041.ZHU Yinyin,CHAI Lei.Study on the dynamic change of the water environment carrying capacity based on system dynamics in a city.Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy,2010,6(9):1039-1041. [17] 谭红武,杜强,彭文启,等.流域水生态承载力及其概念模型.中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2011,9(1):1-8.TAN Hongwu,DU Qiang,PENG Wenqi,et al.Watershed aquatic ecological carrying capacity and it's conceptual model.Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2011,9(1):1-8. [18] 彭文启.流域水生态承载力理论与优化调控模型方法.中国工程科学,2013,5(3):33-43.PENG Wenqi.Watershed water ecological carrying capacity and optimizing regulation model.Engineering Sciences,2013,5(3):33-43. [19] 黄真理.三峡水库水环境保护研究及其进展.四川大学学报(工程科学版),2006,8(5):7-15.HUANG Zhenli.Water quality protection and advances on Three Gorges Reservoir.Journal of Sichuan University (Engineering Science Edition),2006,8(5):7-15. [20] 王丽婧,席春燕,郑丙辉.三峡库区流域水环境保护分区.应用生态学报,2011,2(4):1039-1044.WANG Lijing,XI Chunyan,ZHENG Binghui.Zoning of water environment protection in Three Gorges Reservoir Watershed.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2011,2(4):1039-1044. [21] MYLOPOULOS Y A,KOLOKYTHA E G.Integrated water management in shared water resources:the EU water framework directive impliementation in Greece.Physics and Chemistry of the Earth,2008,3:347-353. [22] 王丽婧,翟羽佳,郑丙辉,等.三峡库区及其上游流域水污染防治规划.环境科学研究,2012,5(12):1370-1377.WANG Lijing,ZHAI Yujia,ZHENG Binghui,et al.Study on water pollution prevention planning for the Three Gorges Reservoir area and its upper reaches.Research of Environmental Sciences,2012,5(12):1370-1377. [23] 曾晨,刘艳芳,张万顺,等.流域水生态承载力研究的起源和发展.长江流域资源与环境,2011,0(2):203-210.ZENG Chen,LIU Yanfang,ZHANG Wanshun,et al.Origination and development of the concept of aquatic ecological carrying capacity in the basin.Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2011,0(2):203-210. [24] 高吉喜.可持续发展理论探索:生态承载力理论、方法与应用.北京:中国环境科学出版社,2001. [25] European Environment Agency.Europe's environment:the second assessment.Oxford:Elsevier Science Ltd.,1998. [26] OECD.Environmental indicators:development measurement and use.Paris:OCED Publication,2003. [27] 周谐,杨敏,雷波,等.基于PSR模型的三峡水库消落带生态环境综合评价.水生态学杂志,2012,3(5):13-19.ZHOU Xie,YANG Min,LEI Bo,et al.Comprehensive assessment of eco-environmental quality of the water-level-fluctuating zone in the Three Gorges Area based on PSR model.Journal of Hydroecology,2012,3(5):13-19. [28] 刘子刚,蔡飞.区域水生态承载力评价指标体系研究.环境污染与防治,2012,4(9):73-77. [29] 李靖,周孝德,程文.太子河流域不同生态分区的水生态承载力年内变化研究.中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2011,9(1):74-80.LI Jing,ZHOU Xiaode,CHENG Wen.Study on annual change in water ecological carrying capacity of the different ecological district of the Taizi River Basin.Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2011,9(1):74-80. [30] 陈琛,程文,吴小琴,等.太子河流域鞍山段水生态承载力研究//中国环境科学学会.中国环境科学学会学术年会论文集(第一卷).北京:中国环境科学学会,2011:536-542. [31] 莫淑红,孙新新,沈冰,等.基于系统动力学的区域水环境动态承载力研究.西安理工大学学报,2007,3(3):251-256.MO Shuhong,SUN Xinxin,SHEN Bing,et al.Dynamic carrying capacity of regional water environment based on system dynamics.Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,2007,3(3):251-256.
点击查看大图
计量
- 文章访问数: 2977
- HTML全文浏览量: 35
- PDF下载量: 4650
- 被引次数: 0