关中地区散煤源PM2.5污染防治的健康经济效益评估
Health and economic benefits attributable to the control of PM2.5pollution fromresidential coal combustion in Guanzhong area
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摘要: 受不良地形因素影响,加之采暖季散煤燃烧现象严重,陕西省关中地区冬季雾霾天气频发。自2017年散煤治理相关奖补政策出台以来,区域空气质量状况改善明显。基于2020年冬季实地调研信息和相关统计数据,评价了关中7市(区)四年间的散煤治理成效,采用箱式模型分析了散煤源PM2.5的贡献变化情况,进一步根据泊松回归模型评估了散煤治理带来的健康经济效益。结果表明,关中地区2017 ~ 2020年冬季散煤治理总量达777938.00 t,西安市与渭南市的散煤治理总量最高,杨陵区治理进程最快(散煤治理率达100%)。四年间采暖季散煤源PM2.5的日均浓度值降低了7.2 μg·m-3,相对于大气PM2.5的贡献率降低了4.5%,对PM2.5改善的贡献率达12.4%。关中地区2017 ~ 2020年控制散煤燃烧PM2.5污染使得居民过早死亡率降低了1.50E-05(95%CI:3.66E-06 ~ 2.62E-05),降幅达到98.2%,发病率(门诊、住院及慢性支气管炎的发生率)降低了4.11E-04(95%CI:1.71E-04,6.59E-04),降幅达到98.3%,所带来的健康总受益人数约为10662人,共可获得约14.12亿元的经济效益。Abstract: Affected by the unfavorable topographical conditions and the massive residential coal combustion during heating season in winter, haze events occur frequently in the Guanzhong area of Shaanxi Province, China. The regional air quality has improved significantly since 2017 when the residential coal combustion control policies implemented. Based on the field investigation of the residential coal usage and local statistical data, the situation of residential coal control in 7 cities (districts) of Guanzhong area during the past four years (2017 ~ 2020) was evaluated. The PM2.5 from residential coal combustion contribution to ambient PM2.5 was estimated by Box model, and the health and economic benefits were evaluated by Poisson Regression model in this study. The results showed that residential coal has been effectively controlled in Guanzhong area during winter from 2017 to 2020, with the total reduction of 777,938.00 t. The reduction amount in Xi'an and Weinan were the highest, and the treatment rate reached 100% in Yangling District. The residential coal control decreased the daily average PM2.5 concentration during heating season in Guanzhong by 7.2 μg·m-3 and the contribution from resident coal sector to PM2.5 decreased by 4.5% approximately in the past four years, which account for 12.4% of the PM2.5 improvement. The premature mortality rate of residents decreased by 1.50E-05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.66E-06, 2.62E-05), with a reduction rate of 98.2%; the morbidity rate (incidence of outpatient, hospitalization and chronic bronchitis) decreased by 4.11E-04 (95%CI: 1.71E-04, 6.59E-04), with a reduction rate of 98.3%. The health benefit population was estimated to be 10,662 and the consequent economic benefit was estimated to be as high as 1.412 billion RMB from the residential coal control in the Guanzhong area, Shaanxi.
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Key words:
- Guanzhong area /
- PM2.5 /
- residential coal control /
- health benefit /
- economic benefit
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