基于流域水环境模型评估资料缺乏地区的重金属面源负荷
Evaluation of Non-Point Source Load of Heavy Metals in Basins with Poor Data Conditions based on Watershed Water Quality Modeling
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摘要: 以SWAT模型为基础,借鉴输出系数模型,考虑重金属溶出率影响,发展了一个重金属面源污染模型SWAT-MT。新模型兼顾输出系数模型和机理模型的优点,适合数据资料缺乏地区使用。应用SWAT-MT评估了湘江株洲段子流域的铅面源负荷,进行了参数敏感性分析和不确定性分析。模拟结果显示,铅的面源侵蚀量为1.86 t/a,侵蚀强度为4.70 kg/km2/a。侵蚀强度空间差异明显,城镇用地的侵蚀强度是平均水平的2.23倍。因此区域的铅污染管理应优先防治城镇地区的面源污染。模拟的流域出口的铅负荷为0.70 t/a,约为面源侵蚀量的38%。蒙特卡洛模拟显示模型输出存在显著的不确定性。95%置信区间下,铅的面源侵蚀量为1.39~2.31 t/a,流域出口负荷为0.43~1.00 t/a。敏感性分析结果显示,为进一步降低模拟不确定性并提高结果的可靠性,应重点关注城市积尘中的铅浓度、铅的溶出率和河道铅沉降速率三个参数的赋值情况。本研究中观测数据十分缺乏,我们通过参考相似流域、文献研究等手段进行水沙模拟校正和重金属参数的赋值。本研究的建模范式可为其他资料缺乏地区的重金属面源污染模拟工作提供参考。Abstract: In this study, a watershed model SWAT-MT was developed on the basis of SWAT to simulate the non-point source pollution of heavy metals. In the development of SWAT-MT, we refer to the export coefficient model and use a dissolution rate to describe the leaching effect of heavy metals in surface runoff. The new model retains the advantages of both the export coefficient model and the process-based mechanism model, and can be applied in basins with poor data conditions. The SWAT-MT was used to evaluate the non-point source lead load in a subbasin of Xiangjiang River in Zhuzhou City, Hunan Province, and the sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis were also carried out. The simulated erosion load of lead is 1.86 t/a and the erosion intensity is 4.70 kg/km2/a. The erosion intensity has significant spatial heterogeneity, and the erosion intensity in urban areas is as high as 2.23 times of the average level. Therefore, priority should be given to the control of urban non-point source pollution. The simulated lead load at the watershed outlet is 0.70 t/a, which is approximately 38% of the surface erosion load. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that there is significant uncertainty in the model output. Under 95% confidence interval, the erosion of lead is 1.39~2.31 t/a, and lead load at the watershed outlet is 0.43~1.00 t/a. Sensitivity analysis indicates that in order to reduce the uncertainty and improve the reliability of the model, modelers should pay attention to the assignment of three parameters, namely, the lead concentration in urban surface sediments, the dissolution rate of lead and the settling rate of lead in streamflow. The observation data in this study are very limited. The calibration of water and sediment simulation and the determination of heavy metal parameters were carried out with reference to the observation data and literature research of similar watersheds. The modeling paradigm in this study can provide a reference for the non-point source simulation of heavy metals in basins with poor data conditions.
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Key words:
- Non-Point Source Pollution Simulation /
- Heavy Metals /
- Lead /
- SWAT-MT /
- Xiangjiang River
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