Abstract:
Affected by factors such as production process, treatment technology and treatment efficiency, the cost of air pollution control is difficult to estimate. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an integrated air pollution control cost model that considers all different factors for the cost-benefit assessment. Because thermal power plant sector is the key area for air pollution control, it is adopted in this study. Based on the environmental statistics data and on-site survey data (2011-2015), the least-squares nonlinear regression method is used to establish the desulphurization cost models, which consists of three components: fixed cost, variable cost and sulfur dioxide removal. The variables also include: installment capacity, sulfur rate of the fuel, SO
2 removal rate, operation time, standard coal consumption, conversion rate of sulfur in coal, etc. The results show that: (1) The cost models of each desulfurization technology (furnace desulfurization, limestone-gypsum desulfurization and other methods) have certain rationality, the goodness of fit is significant at 0.01 level, the simulated cost value of the model is close to the environmental statistics and field research data with the errors below 300 RMB/t, and the models can accurately predict the costs of each desulfurization technology. (2) From the perspective of the three desulfurization technologies, the limestone gypsum method has the highest desulfurization cost (3400 RMB/t), while from the perspective of installed capacity, the desulfurization cost gradually decreases with the increase of installed capacity, and enterprises can optimize the desulfurization method and installed capacity according to their own conditions. (3) The sensitivity analysis indicates that the SO
2 removal efficiency of the desulfurization facilities and the sulfur content in coal have the greatest impact on the cost model. Therefore, the setting of the desulfurization efficiency and the selection of coal quality are important to the desulfurization cost. The cost models of the three desulfurization methods and three installed capacities can provide assistance for the rational selection of desulfurization technologies and material input in the thermal power sector, and can also be used as a reference for the policy makers to estimate the cost-benefit analysis of the air pollution control policy.