Abstract:
The outbreak of COVID-19 challenged China's urban system. Exploring the spatial pattern and influencing factors of the incidence of COVID-19 (PR
covid) at the city level can provide insights into urban sustainable development. The purpose of this paper is to explore the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between the incidence of COVID-19 and population migration and socioeconomic factors in Chinese cities. Based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, we analyzed the impact of the migration rate of all other cities across the country (MR
all), migration rate of Wuhan (MR
wuhan), GDP per capita (GDP
PC), green area per capita (GA
pc), number of medical staff per capita (NMS
pc) and public expenditure per capita (PE
pc) on the PR
covid in 282 cities in China. The results show that: (1) The explanatory power of GWR model on PR
covid(overall
R2=0.40) was significantly higher than that of ordinary least squares linear regression model (overall
R2=0.02). (2) The impact of MR
wuhan decreased with increasing distance from Wuhan, except for parts of Northeast and Southwest China. (3) GDP
pc played a positive role in controlling the PR
covid in the more developed southeast region. (4) The indicators of GA
pc and NMS
pc only effected positively in small parts of the country, excluding cities around Wuhan. In contrast, PE
pc played a key role in controlling the PC
covid in the surrounding areas of Wuhan. In conclusion, the incidence of COVID-19 in Chinese cities and its relationship with migration / urban socioeconomic indicators showed clear spatial patterns. The impact of migration, public investment and urban greening all followed a certain spatial attenuation pattern from Wuhan, while the impact of economic level is regional-dependent.