Abstract:
The temporal and spatial variation trends of health impact of PM
2.5 and O
3 pollution in China and the factors influencing human health were analyzed to provide support for the development of air pollution control strategies and targets. The relative risk evaluation model was used to evaluate spatial-temporal changes in the health effects of PM
2.5 and O
3 pollution in 338 cities at and above the prefectural level in China from 2015 to 2018. The method in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Report was utilized to estimate the contribution rates of population size, age structure, disease mortality rate and pollutant concentration to health effects, and different target scenarios were set to predict health effects in 2025 and 2030. The results showed that premature deaths caused by PM
2.5 dropped from 1.522, 1 million in 2015 to 1.368, 2 million in 2018, while premature deaths caused by O
3 increased from 79, 900 in 2015 to 82, 700 in 2018, and the highest health effects caused by the two pollutants appeared in the '2+26' cities. The contribution rates of population size, age structure, mortality and pollutant concentration to premature deaths caused by PM
2.5 were 4.83%, 30.55%, 19.00% and 45.62%, respectively, while the contribution rates to premature deaths caused O
3 were 17.76%, 12.34%, 23.41% and 46.48%, respectively. Based on social development, PM
2.5 should be reduced to below 40 μg/m
3 in 2025 and below 35 μg/m
3 in 2030. By 2025, O
3 should be maintained the same level as in 2018. O
3 in 2030 should be 4% lower than in 2018, and the premature deaths attributed to these two pollutants should be close to that of 2018. In the future, China should develop air pollution control policies with a higher goal, continue to strengthen pollution control of PM
2.5, and further restrain the upward trend of O
3. The direction and efforts of ecological and environmental protection should remain unchanged and undiminished in order to fully protect public health.