农村居民生活碳达峰路径及对策

Rural Household Carbon-Peak Path and Countermeasures

  • 摘要: 全国碳达峰目标已经明确,农村居民生活能源消费是碳排放增长的重要来源,亟待得到有效控制.为研究农村居民生活碳达峰路径,基于农村居民生活能源消费现状分析,采用碳排放系数法对2000—2018年农村居民生活的碳排放进行核算,基于情景分析法,从能源消费结构调整的角度,设定不同情景分析农村居民生活的碳达峰时间及峰值.结果表明:①2000—2018年,农村居民生活碳排放量、人均碳排放量均呈快速上升趋势,其中农村居民生活碳排放量占国家碳排放总量的3.0%~4.0%.②在2030年国家碳排放强度下降65%的目标下,农村居民生活同步碳达峰目标约为3.64×108 t;农村居民煤炭消费的碳排放已在2017年达峰,总量达峰则依托于能源结构调整情景实现目标.③基准情景下,2030年前无法实现碳达峰;政策情景下,将在2027—2028年达到峰值,峰值约为3.66×108 t;优化情景下,将在2024年达到峰值,峰值约为3.44×108 t.④基于能源结构调整的碳达峰路径主要表现为煤炭消费占比降至18.0%左右,天然气、电力、其他能源消费占比分别提至1.5%、35.0%、30.0%左右.研究显示,促进碳达峰的措施可重点从完善顶层设计、制定农村能源发展战略规划、推动分布式能源系统建设、加强节能减排技术保障、创新资金支持、普及绿色低碳生活方式等几个方面加强实施,从而推动农村的能源变革与节能减排.

     

    Abstract: The target of China's carbon emission peak has been determined, and the substantial growth of rural household energy consumption has become an important source of carbon emissions growth, which needs to be controlled urgently. This research is based on the analysis of the current energy consumption in rural residents. In order to study the rural household carbon peak path, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of rural residents from 2000 to 2018. The peak path of rural household carbon emissions is analyzed under the national carbon emission peak goal and different scenarios. The scenarios are set under the perspective of energy consumption structure adjustment. The results showed that: (1) Both the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of rural households show a rapid upward trend from 2000 to 2018. Among them, the total rural household carbon emissions account for about 3.0%-4.0% of the national carbon emissions. (2) Under the national target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% in 2030, the synchronous peak target of rural household carbon emissions should be 364 million tons. The rural household carbon emissions from coal consumption reached a peak in 2017, and the total amount could reach the peak depending on the energy structure adjustment scenarios to achieve the target. (3) In the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions peak will not be achieved before 2030. Under the policy scenario, rural household carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2027-2028, with a value of about 366 million tons. Under the optimized scenario, the peak will appear in 2024, with a value of about 344 million tons. (4) According to the energy structure adjustment target, the carbon peak path of rural energy emissions can be presented as follows: the proportion of coal consumption should be reduced to about 18.0%, and the proportion of natural gas, electricity and other energy consumption should be increased to about 1.5%, 35.0% and 30.0%, respectively. The supporting measures can be strongly taken from aspects including improving the top-level design, formulating rural energy development strategic planning, promoting the development of distributed energy system, strengthening technical support for energy conservation and emission reduction, innovating financial support, and popularizing green and low-carbon lifestyles, so as to promote rural energy reform, energy conservation and emission reduction.

     

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