Abstract:
The target of China's carbon emission peak has been determined, and the substantial growth of rural household energy consumption has become an important source of carbon emissions growth, which needs to be controlled urgently. This research is based on the analysis of the current energy consumption in rural residents. In order to study the rural household carbon peak path, the carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the carbon emissions of rural residents from 2000 to 2018. The peak path of rural household carbon emissions is analyzed under the national carbon emission peak goal and different scenarios. The scenarios are set under the perspective of energy consumption structure adjustment. The results showed that: (1) Both the total carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions of rural households show a rapid upward trend from 2000 to 2018. Among them, the total rural household carbon emissions account for about 3.0%-4.0% of the national carbon emissions. (2) Under the national target of reducing carbon intensity by 65% in 2030, the synchronous peak target of rural household carbon emissions should be 364 million tons. The rural household carbon emissions from coal consumption reached a peak in 2017, and the total amount could reach the peak depending on the energy structure adjustment scenarios to achieve the target. (3) In the baseline scenario, the carbon emissions peak will not be achieved before 2030. Under the policy scenario, rural household carbon emissions will reach the peak in 2027-2028, with a value of about 366 million tons. Under the optimized scenario, the peak will appear in 2024, with a value of about 344 million tons. (4) According to the energy structure adjustment target, the carbon peak path of rural energy emissions can be presented as follows: the proportion of coal consumption should be reduced to about 18.0%, and the proportion of natural gas, electricity and other energy consumption should be increased to about 1.5%, 35.0% and 30.0%, respectively. The supporting measures can be strongly taken from aspects including improving the top-level design, formulating rural energy development strategic planning, promoting the development of distributed energy system, strengthening technical support for energy conservation and emission reduction, innovating financial support, and popularizing green and low-carbon lifestyles, so as to promote rural energy reform, energy conservation and emission reduction.