Abstract:
Achieving peak in carbon emissions and carbon neutrality as soon as possible is an internal need for promoting a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation in China's economic society. Studying the pathway of carbon peaking is of great practical significance for China to reasonably formulate the targets and measures for carbon peaking in 2030. This research selects 18 papers published between 2015 and 2020, and uses Meta regression analysis to study the pathways for peaking carbon emissions and their main influencing factors. The results show: (1) Most papers predict that China will achieve the peak in carbon emissions in 2030 or before 2030, with an average predicted peak carbon emissions of about 10.9 Gt CO
2. The average proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions would be 51.87%, and the average proportion of non-fossil energy would be 22.4%. The average annual economic growth rate would be 5.39%, and the average reduction rate of carbon emissions intensity would be 54.04%. (2) The results of the samples selected in the research, which predict the pathway of the carbon peaking, are consistent with carbon peaking target of China before 2030. The later the paper is published, the earlier the predicted carbon peak time and the higher the carbon peak. (3) The regression results show that all variables are significant to the peak CO
2 emissions, except the variable of the decline rate of carbon emission intensity at the peak of carbon emissions (peakCEI). And all variables are significant to the time of carbon emissions peaking except the variable of paper type (PTY), impact factor (IF), the classification of the proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (yblcoal) and the proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (pnf). In the future, China should conduct in-deep research in these areas, including studying the optimal pathway to the carbon peak based on cost-benefit theory, improving the accounting methods of GHG inventories, vigorously promoting the progress of clean energy technology, and improving the quality of economic development, etc.