中国碳达峰路径的Meta回归分析

Meta Regression Analysis of Pathway of Peak Carbon Emissions in China

  • 摘要: 尽早实现碳达峰、碳中和是中国推动经济社会全面绿色低碳转型的内在需求,开展碳达峰路径研究对中国合理制定2030年碳达峰目标和措施具有重大现实意义.该文筛选发表于2015—2020年间的18篇文献,采用Meta回归分析方法研究中国碳达峰路径及主要影响因素.结果表明:①多数文献预测中国将于2030年或2030年前实现碳达峰,平均预测峰值水平约10.9 Gt CO2;碳达峰时煤炭占比平均值为51.9%,非化石能源占比平均值为22.4%,经济年增长率平均值为5.4%,碳排放强度下降率平均值为54.0%.②该文筛选的样本对碳达峰路径预测结果与中国2030年前碳达峰目标一致,文献发表时间越晚预测的达峰时间越早且峰值越高.③除碳达峰时碳排放强度下降率(peakCEI)外,其余变量均对碳达峰峰值具有显著性;除文献类型(PTY)、影响因子(IF)、碳达峰时煤炭占比分类(yblcoal)、碳达峰时非化石能源占比(pnf)外,其余变量均对碳达峰时间具有显著性.未来中国应从基于成本效益的最优达峰路径、完善温室气体清单核算方法、大力推动清洁能源技术进步、提高经济发展质量等方面开展深入研究.

     

    Abstract: Achieving peak in carbon emissions and carbon neutrality as soon as possible is an internal need for promoting a comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation in China's economic society. Studying the pathway of carbon peaking is of great practical significance for China to reasonably formulate the targets and measures for carbon peaking in 2030. This research selects 18 papers published between 2015 and 2020, and uses Meta regression analysis to study the pathways for peaking carbon emissions and their main influencing factors. The results show: (1) Most papers predict that China will achieve the peak in carbon emissions in 2030 or before 2030, with an average predicted peak carbon emissions of about 10.9 Gt CO2. The average proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions would be 51.87%, and the average proportion of non-fossil energy would be 22.4%. The average annual economic growth rate would be 5.39%, and the average reduction rate of carbon emissions intensity would be 54.04%. (2) The results of the samples selected in the research, which predict the pathway of the carbon peaking, are consistent with carbon peaking target of China before 2030. The later the paper is published, the earlier the predicted carbon peak time and the higher the carbon peak. (3) The regression results show that all variables are significant to the peak CO2 emissions, except the variable of the decline rate of carbon emission intensity at the peak of carbon emissions (peakCEI). And all variables are significant to the time of carbon emissions peaking except the variable of paper type (PTY), impact factor (IF), the classification of the proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (yblcoal) and the proportion of coal at the peak of carbon emissions (pnf). In the future, China should conduct in-deep research in these areas, including studying the optimal pathway to the carbon peak based on cost-benefit theory, improving the accounting methods of GHG inventories, vigorously promoting the progress of clean energy technology, and improving the quality of economic development, etc.

     

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