Abstract:
In this study, industry, electric power, heating, transportation and forest carbon sequestration are considered as the objects of study to explore the low-cost path of China's peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. A low-cost path multi objective programming model for China's peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality is formulated with the minimum total system cost, emission of carbon dioxide and air pollutants as objective function, and peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030, carbon neutralization before 2060, industry supply, power supply, heating supply, transportation supply, proportion of green energy in various industries, and emission controls as constraints. Steel industry, chemical industry, building materials industry and other industries with large coal consumption are considered. Coal power, nuclear power, wind power and solar energy are considered for electric power. Forest carbon sink and carbon capture and storage (CCS) were considered as technical means to achieve peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality in this model. The result shows that: (1) The feasibility of China's peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality is high, and the time nodes were set scientifically. The annual cost of various industries is about 17.54 trillion RMB when carbon dioxide emissions peaks. The carbon dioxide emissions of representative industries at peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality was about 68.63×10
8 t and 34.50×10
8 t, respectively. (2) Industrial transformation represented by iron and steel industry, chemical industry and construction material industry have lower feasibility and less contribution to the realization of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality, while the transformation of electric power, heating and transportation has higher feasibility and greater contribution to the realization of peaking carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. Carbon dioxide emissions from electric power system will reach 72.86% and 43.34% in 2030 and 2060, respectively. (3) Installed capacity of coal-fired power will decrease continuously. It is necessary to cancel some planned coal-fired power projects, phase out and reform some existing coal-fired power equipment in advance. On the other hand, the capacity of wind power and solar power would increase. In 2030 and 2060, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach 12×10
8 kW and 24×10
8 kW, respectively. (4) CCS will provide the assist force for China achieve its peaking carbon dioxide emission and carbon neutrality goals. In the future, China's carbon emission reduction will focus on the power system, followed by heating and transportation. The results of this study suggest that the green development model of different provinces and different economic circles should be formulated according to the characteristics of the industry.