碳协同减排视角下广东省PM2.5实现WHO-Ⅱ目标策略研究

Strategies for PM2.5 in Guangdong Province to Achieve the WHO-Ⅱ Air Quality Target from the Perspective of Synergistic Control with CO2

    摘要
  • 摘要: CO2排放和大气污染物排放具有同根同源性，二者的排放控制措施常常具有一定程度的协同减排效应.为降低政策成本、提高政策效率，政策制定者在制定空气质量改善策略时，应充分考虑其对CO2减排的协同效益.以大气污染物与CO2协同减排为指引，分析产业、交通运输、能源的结构优化调整和末端治理水平提升策略，通过空气质量模型方法分析并提出广东省在2025年PM2.5实现世界卫生组织第二阶段过渡目标（简称“WHO-Ⅱ目标”）的政策建议.结果表明：在2017年基准条件下，按经济社会活动发展趋势和现有末端治理要求，模拟预测广东省2025年PM2.5年均浓度将达26.9 μg/m3，难以达到WHO-Ⅱ目标（25.0 μg/m3）.在可进一步采取的减排措施中，产业结构调整、在用车辆更新、发电结构调整、交通运输结构调整、工业用能变化和工业末端治理对大气污染物减排的分担率分别为55.5%、17.7%、6.8%、3.8%、3.9%和12.2%，对CO2减排的分担率分别为20.8%、14.0%、11.9%、9.3%、33.9%和0.在基于协同性制定的达标策略情景下，优先采取了产业结构调整、在用车辆更新等协同性较好、减排潜力较大的措施.在该情景下，2025年全省SO2、NOx、PM、VOCs和CO2的排放总量较2017年的变化率分别为-13.7%、-19.4%、-21.8%、-20.3%和13.6%，模拟预测广东省2025年PM2.5年均浓度可达24.6 μg/m3，达到WHO-Ⅱ目标.研究显示，为确保2025年广东省PM2.5年均浓度达到WHO-Ⅱ目标，应进一步强化大气污染物减排，建议优先考虑产业结构调整、在用车辆更新等与CO2减排协同性较好、减排潜力较大的措施.

     

    Abstract: The emissions of CO2 and air pollutants have the same root and homology, and emission control measures for them often have a certain degree of synergistic emission reduction effects. To reduce policy costs and improve policy efficiency, policy makers should give full consideration to the co-benefits of CO2 and air pollutant mitigations when formulating air quality improvement strategies. Guided by the synergistic emission reduction of air pollutants and CO2, this paper analyzed the optimization and adjustment of industry, transportation, energy structure, and improvement of end-of-pipe control measures. The recommended policies for Guangdong Province to achieve WHO-Ⅱ target for PM2.5 in 2025 were analyzed with air quality model. The results showed that under the 2017 benchmark conditions, the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in Guangdong Province was predicted to reach 26.9 μg/m3 in 2025, and it was difficult to reach the WHO-Ⅱ target (25.0 μg/m3) under the development trends of economic and social activity levels and the existing end-of-pipe control requirements. Among the emission reduction measures that could be further adopted, industrial structure adjustment, in-use vehicle replacement, power generation structure adjustment, transportation structure adjustment, industrial energy use changes, and industrial end-of-pipe measures accounted for 55.5%, 17.7%, 6.8%, 3.8%, 3.9% and 12.2% of air pollutant emission reduction, respectively, and accounted for 20.8%, 14.0%, 11.9%, 9.3%, 33.9% and 0 of CO2 emission reduction, respectively. Under the strategic scenarios based on the synergistic analysis, measures with good synergy and great potential for emission reductions were priority, such as in-use vehicle replacement and industrial structure adjustment. In this scenario, emission change rate of SO2, NOx, PM, VOCs and CO2 were -13.7%, -19.4%, -21.8%, -20.3% and 13.6%, respectively, compared to 2017. It was predicted that the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in Guangdong Province will reach 24.6 μg/m3 in 2025, reaching the WHO-Ⅱ target. To ensure the achievement of the WHO-Ⅱ target for PM2.5 in Guangdong Province in 2025, emission reduction measures should be further strengthened. In addition, measures with good synergies and emission reduction potential, such as industrial structure adjustment and in-use vehicle replacement, were recommended.

     

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