Abstract: Ecosystem service value (ESV) is an important measure of regional ecological well-being. The evolution law of ESV has essential reference significance for regional ecological protection policy-making and green development. The spatial pattern and evolution of ESV in Daloushan District from 2000 to 2018 were assesses based on land-use data and the equivalent factor method of correction coefficients, using the Daloushan District Water Containment and Biodiversity Conservation Important Area (Dalou Mountain area) as the study area. At the same time, 10 land-use driving factors and patch generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model were introduced to predict the land-use change and ESV evolution and transform characteristics under three scenarios of natural evolution, economic priority and ecological protection in Dalou Mountain area in 2036. The results indicate that: (1) The ESV in Daloushan District showed a slight increasing trend, from 1988.41×10⁸ RMB/a in 2000 increased to 1994.20×10⁸ RMB/a in 2018, an increase of 0.29%. Among them, the increase of wetland area led to an increase of 4.75×10⁸ RMB/a in hydrological regulation ESV. (2) In general, night light index, population density, elevation and other factors have a high contribution to the land development potential of cultivated land, forest land and grassland. In terms of cultivated land development potential, driven by elevation, night light index and topographic humidity index (TWI), the contribution is high, which are 14.41%, 11.83% and 10.44% respectively. (3) From the ESV simulation results, by 2036, the ESV in Dalou Mountain area under the economic priority scenario will be 1955.8×10⁸ RMB/a, down 38.4×10⁸ compared with 2018. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area of forest land and water area increased significantly, resulting in the increase of climate regulation and hydrological regulation by 4.77×10⁸ RMB/a and 3.35×10⁸ RMB/a respectively. The conversion of cultivated land to forest land was concentrated in Jinsha County, Xishui County, Xuyong County and Dafang County. The research shows that returning farmland to forest is the dominant way of ecological protection in the Dalou mountain area, and the change of land-use in wetland water area is an important factor affecting the increase or decrease of ESV in Dalou mountain area.