Abstract:
At present, the stability of ozone forecast products provided by numerical model and statistical model in Shaanxi Province could not meet the needs of refined environmental management. It is urgent to develop a practical and local ozone forecasting method in Shaanxi Province. In this study, the ozone forecast workflow is constructed and the relevant technical parameters and requirements are defined. Taking Shaanxi Province and Xi'an City as examples, we analyzed the historical meteorological and ambient air quality data to obtain the ozone pollution pattern in Shaanxi Province, and the distribution characteristics of ozone level under different meteorological conditions in Xi'an and the key points of typical case forecast. The relevant requirements for the construction, consultation and forecast review mechanisms of regular case meetings were clarified, which provides a scientific and technical route for local ozone forecast model. The research shows that the ozone operational forecast workflow consisting of ozone forecast effect evaluation and result selection, manual correction, forecast consultation and forecast result review is feasible. In addition, ozone concentration has a significant negative correlation with relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed, and a significant positive correlation with temperature. The ozone forecast should focus on the ozone pollution level under the meteorological conditions of daily average temperature higher than 28 ℃, daily maximum temperature higher than 34 ℃, relative humidity lower than 57%, air pressure lower than 959 hPa and wind speed lower than 2.3 m/s.