西北地区重点城市工业大气污染排放时空演化格局及影响因素研究

Research on Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern and Influencing Factors of Industrial Air Pollution Emissions in Key Cities in Northwest China

  • 摘要: 为研究西北地区重点城市工业大气污染的时空演化特征和主要影响因素,选取2016−2020年该地区35个城市(简称“研究区”)工业SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘的排放量和社会经济数据作为基础数据源,并采用全局自相关分析、冷热点分析和对数平均迪氏分解模型(LMDI)进行解析. 结果表明:①研究区工业大气污染物排放总体呈下降趋势,高排放城市明显减少,2016—2020年工业SO2、NOx和烟(粉)尘分别减排了57.08%、33.77%和9.35%,与全国78.5%、64.5%和49.3%的减排成效相差较大. ②研究区工业污染物空间集聚水平整体偏低,多呈现低集聚-高污染状态. 但随时间推移空间关联度增强,且在2020年各污染物的Z(I)值均超过1.96,并通过P<0.05的显著性检验,呈现出显著的空间自相关性. ③技术改善效应对研究区工业大气污染排放存在显著抑制作用;经济发展始终是促进工业大气污染物排放的首要驱动因素;产业结构效应对工业大气污染排放具有一定影响,需通过严控“两高”行业新增产能、更新老旧设备和淘汰落后产能等措施进行改善;人口规模效应对工业大气污染排放影响较小. 研究显示,研究区工业污染排放空间溢出不显著,且主要受技术改善和产业结构效应带来的抑制作用以及经济发展效应带来的促进作用所影响.

     

    Abstract: In order to study the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and main influencing factors of industrial air pollution in key cities in Northwest China, the emissions of industrial SO2, NOx and smoke (powder) dust and social and economic data of 35 cities (study area) in this region from 2016 to 2020 were selected as the basic data sources. Global autocorrelation analysis, cold hot spot analysis and Log-mean Dieldahl Decomposition Model (LMDI) were used for analysis. The results show that: (1) The emissions of industrial air pollutants in the study area showed a downward trend in general, and the cities with high emissions significantly decreased. From 2016 to 2020, industrial SO2, NOx and smoke (powder) dust decreased by 57.08%, 33.77% and 9.35%, respectively, which had a big difference from the nation-wide emission efficiency 78.5%, 64.5% and 49.3%, respectively. (2) The overall level of spatial agglomeration of industrial pollutants in the research area is relatively low, mostly in a state of low agglomeration to high pollution. But the spatial correlation increased over time, and the Z(I) value of each pollutant in 2020 exceeded 1.96 and passed the significance test of P<0.05, which showed significant spatial autocorrelation. (3) The technology improvements have a significant inhibitory effect on industrial air pollution emissions in the study area. Economic development is always the primary driving factor to promote industrial air pollutant emissions. The effect of industrial structure has a certain impact on industrial air pollution emissions, which should be improved by strictly controlling the new production capacity of the ‘Two High’ industries, updating old equipment and eliminating backward production capacity. Population size effect has little impact on industrial air pollution emissions. The study shows that the spatial spillover of industrial pollution emissions in the study area is not significant, and it is mainly affected by the inhibitory effect of technological improvement and industrial structure effect and the promoting effect of economic development effect.

     

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