“两山”转化阶段判定方法及实证研究

Methodology and Empirical Studies on Identifying the Stages of ‘Two Mountains’ Transformation

  • 摘要: 习近平提出的“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念表述了区域“两山”转化的递进发展阶段,研究建立“两山”转化阶段判定方法对于区域生态文明建设绩效评估十分必要. 本文以唐山市、南通市和巴马瑶族自治县三个不同类型地区为例,利用阈值识别和滑动t检验探索并总结了“两山”转化阶段的判定方法. 结果表明:①资源环境损耗随经济增长斜率变缓的转折点是“绿水青山换取金山银山”向“既要绿水青山,也要金山银山”阶段转换的判定依据,峰值拐点是转向“宁要绿水青山,不要金山银山”阶段的判定依据. ②当环境损耗持续下降,生态系统非实物价值凸显,是“绿水青山就是金山银山”成效显现的判定依据. ③不同地区实现“两山”转化的路径有差异,东部率先发展地区走过了先污染后治理的路径,西部环境良好但经济落后的地区需要国家生态补偿和先进地区的带动,实现跨越式发展. 研究显示,环境和经济的关系变化是判定区域“两山”转化阶段的重要依据.

     

    Abstract: The concept of ‘lucid waters and lush mountains are gold and silver mountain of invaluable assets’ (known as the ‘Two Mountains’ transformation) proposed by Xi Jinping outlines a series of progressive development processes for China to achieve sustainable development. To evaluate the performance of regional ecological civilization construction, it is essential to establish a method for identifying the stage of the ‘Two Mountains’ transformation. In this study, a methodology was developed by using threshold identification and sliding t-test to determine the stages of the ‘Two Mountains’ transformation in three specific regions: Tangshan City, Nantong City, and Bama Yao Autonomous County. The research results show that: (1) The critical point of resource and environmental costs slow down with economic growth is the basis for identifying the transition from the stage of ‘lush mountains in exchange for gold mountains’ to ‘valuing both lush mountains gold mountains’. The peak inflection point further indicates the shift towards the stage of ‘preferring lush mountains over gold mountains’. (2) As the cost of the resources and the environment continues to decrease, the critical point where the intangible value of ecosystems becomes prominent becomes the core identifying the effectiveness of ‘lush mountains are gold mountains’. (3) Different regions have different paths to achieve the ‘Two Mountains’ transformation. The eastern region takes the lead in implementing the strategy of pollution first and treatment later, while the west region, which has a better environment but is economically backward, requires national ecological compensation and cooperation with advanced regions to achieve leapfrog development. The research shows that analyzing the evolution of the relationship between environment and economy is an important basis for identifying the regional ‘Two mountains’ transformation stages.

     

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