Abstract:
The Przewalski′s gazelle (
Procapra przewalskii) is an endangered species endemic to the Qinghai Lake region of the Tibetan Plateau, and its distribution dynamics indicate the stability of the plateau ecosystem. Studying the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of the Przewalski′s gazelle is of great significance for the conservation of species diversity and the maintenance of ecosystem integrity. In this study, we selected environmental variables reflecting the gazelle′s habitat characteristics to construct a MaxEnt model based distribution records from field surveys and literature (there are a total of distribution points), analyzed the suitable habitat of the gazelle, identified important population dispersal corridors between habitat patches, predicted the suitable distribution areas of the gazelle for the mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2061-2080) under the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and explored the spatial distribution pattern of the Przewalski′s gazelle in response to climate change. The results showed that: (1) The MaxEnt model had a high level of accuracy in predicting the suitable distribution area of the Przewalski′s gazelle, with a mean AUC value of 0.984 for the ROC curve of the model. (2) Under current climatic conditions, the high-level suitable habitat area for the gazelle in the study area is 1997.8 km
2, accounting for 2.85% of the study area. The Przewalski′s gazelle mainly distributed in the northeastern area of Qinghai Lake, the border area of Tianjun and Wulan counties, and the southwestern area of Gonghe County, with considerable geographical distances between these three areas. Based on the analysis of ecological corridors, there were more ecological corridors from the northeastern area of Qinghai Lake to the southwestern area of Gonghe County, making population dispersal relatively easy. (3) Under the four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, the suitable habitat area for the Przewalski′s gazelle will decrease from 2041 to 2060, and the center of the high-level suitable habitat area will shift towards the northwest. From 2061 to 2080, the center of the high-level suitable habitat area will shift towards the north (higher latitudes), and the suitable habitat area for the Przewalski′s gazelle will decrease significantly. In the future, the suitable habitat area for Przewalski′s gazelle tend to decrease to varying degrees, and adaptive measures are required to address the impacts of climate change on Przewalski′s gazelle habitat.