生态保护修复视角下京津冀地区社会经济-生态环境系统耦合关系及影响机制

Coupling Relationship and Influence Mechanism of Socio-Economic and Eco-Environment System in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under the Perspective of Ecological Protection and Restoration

  • 摘要: 协同推进生态保护与绿色发展、助力实现人与自然和谐共生的现代化已成为生态保护修复的重要目标。基于2008—2021年京津冀地区的社会经济和生态环境相关数据,运用综合发展评价模型、耦合协调度模型测度京津冀地区社会经济与生态环境系统耦合协调度,运用VAR模型、灰色关联度模型探究京津冀地区生态保护修复对社会经济-生态环境系统协同发展的影响机制。结果表明:①2008—2021年京津冀地区社会经济、生态环境和生态保护修复系统发展水平均呈上升趋势,年均增长率分别为6.0%、0.97%和3.1%。②2008年—2021年京津冀地区社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度由0.44波动升至0.75,耦合协调状态由濒临失调调整至中级协调;耦合协调水平在空间上存在明显差异,河北省耦合协调水平次于北京市和天津市。③生态保护修复对社会经济-生态环境系统耦合协调度具有短期正向影响;要素保护与修复、环境治理和生态保护修复社会效益均与系统耦合协调度有较强关联,关联度分别为0.877、0.939和0.978。研究显示,京津冀地区生态保护修复能够对社会经济-生态环境系统协同发展产生积极作用,需充分利用其生态与社会正外部性,实现区域绿色可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Promoting ecological protection and green development in a coordinated manner, while contributing to the realization of a harmony modernization between humanity and nature, has become an important goal for ecological protection and restoration. Based on socio-economic and eco-environment data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region between 2008 and 2021, this study employs a comprehensive development evaluation model and a coupling coordination degree model to assess the coupling coordination between the socio-economic and eco-environment systems in the region. Furthermore, the study utilizes the VAR model and the grey relational analysis model to explore the influence mechanism of ecological protection and restoration on the coordinated development of the socio-economic and eco-environment systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show: (1) From 2008 to 2021, the levels of socio-economic, eco-environment, and ecological protection and restoration systems in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region all showed an upward trend, with average annual growth rates of 6.0%, 0.97% and 3.1%, respectively. (2) The coupling coordination degree between the socio-economic and eco-environment system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased from 0.44 to 0.75 from 2008 to 2021, with the coupling coordination state shifting from near imbalance to moderate coordination. There are significant spatial differences in the level of coupling coordination, with Hebei Province lagging behind Beijing and Tianjin. (3) Ecological protection and restoration have a short-term positive impact on the coupling coordination degree of the socio-economic and eco-environment system. Element protection and restoration, environmental governance, and the social benefits derived from ecological protection and restoration all have strong correlations with the coupling coordination degree of the system, with correlation coefficients of 0.877, 0.939 and 0.978, respectively. The research shows that ecological protection and restoration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region positively influence the coordinated development of the socio-economic and eco-environment systems. It is necessary to fully leverage these ecological and social positive externalities to achieve regional green and sustainable development.

     

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