水污染环境库兹涅茨曲线探究:来自中国287城市的证据

Study on Environmental Kuznets Curve for Water Pollution: Evidence from 287 Cities in China

  • 摘要: 探索一条城市层面水污染与经济增长协调发展的可持续道路具有重要意义。为了准确刻画城市水污染与经济发展间的关系,该研究构建动态面板效应模型,基于我国287个城市2012—2022年水污染物浓度与GDP年度数据,探究城市高锰酸盐指数、氨氮、化学需氧量、总氮和总磷这五种主要水污染物的浓度变化情况及其与经济发展间的关系,进而探究异质性城市的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)形态差异以及水环境规制强度和人均收入水平对EKC拐点形成的影响。结果表明:①我国287个城市2012—2022年的高锰酸盐指数、氨氮浓度、化学需氧量和总磷浓度均处于下降态势,而总氮浓度处于波动状态。②除化学需氧量外,氨氮、总氮、总磷浓度及高锰酸盐指数均与经济发展存在倒U型关系。③异质性结果表明,胡焕庸线东侧城市组与非资源型城市的大部分水污染物与经济发展存在显著的倒U型关系。④拐点形成影响因素探究结果表明,在水环境规制强度和居民收入水平较高的城市,大部分水污染物浓度与经济发展均呈倒U型关系。因此,应着重加强化学需氧量污染防治工作,重点关注胡焕庸线以西城市和资源型城市传统经济发展模式的转变,持续深化水污染的预防和治理,充分发挥居民在水环境改善中的重要作用。

     

    Abstract: It is crucial to explore sustainable approaches for the coordinated development of water pollution and economic growth at the city level. Based on annual data on water pollution concentration and GDP from 287 cities of China between 2012 and 2022, a dynamic panel effect model is constructed to investigate changes in five major water pollutants: CODMn, NH3-N, COD, TN and TP and analyze the relationship between water pollutants and economic development. Additionally, this paper explores the differences in EKC patterns in different cities and the effects of water regulation intensity and per capita income levels on the formation of EKC inflection points. The findings reveal the following: (1) The CODMn, NH3-N, COD and TP of 287 cities in China between 2012 and 2022 show a decreasing trend, while TN fluctuates. (2) Except for COD, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between CODMn, NH3-N, TN and TP and economic development. (3) Heterogeneity results indicate that cities east of the Heihe-Tengchong Line and the non-resource-based cities show a significant inverted U-shape relationship. (4) Investigation into factors influencing the inflection point formation reveals that most cities with an inverted U-shaped relationship between water pollutants and economic development are those with high water regulation intensity and high residents income levels. It is recommended to strengthen prevention and treatment of COD pollution, transform the traditional economic development model in cities west of the Heihe-Tengchong Line and resource-based cities, emphasize water pollution prevention and treatment, and engage residents in water environment improvement.

     

/

返回文章
返回