黄河流域减污降碳协同效应的时空特征及影响因素分析

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Synergistic Effects of Pollution and Carbon Emission Reduction in the Yellow River Basin

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”背景下,研究黄河流域减污降碳协同效应(SEPCER)的时空特征及影响因素,对制定减污降碳行动方案具有重要参考价值。采用多种空间分析方法,对2010—2022年黄河流域91个城市的减污降碳协同效应的时空特征进行了分析,并利用地理探测器与空间杜宾模型探究其影响因素。结果表明:①研究期内,黄河流域大气污染物排放当量平均值呈下降趋势,CO2排放量平均值在2021年之前呈上升趋势,但在2022年出现下降,较2021年下降了3.56%。2022年减污降碳协同效应平均值较2010年增长了18.85%。减污降碳协同效应呈现空间集聚特征,但随着时间变化其空间集聚格局也发生改变,未形成路径锁定。②探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA)表明,黄河流域减污降碳协同效应在局部空间结构上呈“上游活跃、下游次之、中游稳定”的特征,就邻域间依赖程度来讲,下游城际作用较强,中游城际作用较弱。黄河流域减污降碳协同效应在时空跃迁过程中未发生跃迁的概率为35.80%,具有较强的空间动态性,时空网络格局以正向关联为主。③空气流通水平、能源消费强度、经济发展水平、人口密度、对外开放水平、科研投入、产业结构升级是影响黄河流域减污降碳协同效应的主要因素,其中能源消费强度、经济发展水平、空气流通水平是关键影响因素,对外开放水平对周边地区产生正向溢出效应,各影响因素交互后存在明显的协同增强效应,应注重多因子协同发展。研究显示,黄河流域城市减污降碳协同效应呈逐渐优化的趋势,但各城市仍需通过加强主导因素驱动、完善协同管理体制、因地制宜开展工作以缩小流域内差距。

     

    Abstract: In the context of supporting Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals, studying the spatio-temporal characteristics of the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction (SEPCER) and its influencing factors is crucial for formulating effective action plans. This research employs multiple spatial analysis models to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction across 91 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2022. Based on this analysis, key factors influencing the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction were identified using geographic detector and spatial Durbin model. The study found that: (1) A decrease in average pollutant emission equivalents within the Yellow River Basin was observed. The average CO2 emission showed an upward trend before 2021, but it decreased by 3.56% in 2022 compared with 2021. By 2022, the average synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction increased by 18.85% compared with 2010. The synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction exhibited the characteristics of spatial agglomeration, but its pattern changed over time, suggesting no lock-in effects. (2) Exploratory spatial-temporal data analysis (ESTDA) revealed that upstream cities had relatively unstable spatial structure compared to downstream and midstream cities. Strong intercity interactions were noted in the lower reaches, and weaker interactions in the middle reaches. Regarding spatial-temporal pattern transitions, 35.80% of the cities showed relatively stable patterns, reflecting strong spatial dynamics, with the overall network pattern dominated by positive correlations. (3) The synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin is primarily influenced by air circulation coefficient, energy consumption intensity, economic development levels, population density, trade openness, scientific research investment, and industrial structure upgrades. Among these factors, energy consumption intensity, economic development, and the air circulation coefficient are the most significant drivers, while trade openness has a positive spillover effect on spatial interactions. The interaction of these factors demonstrates a clear synergistic enhancement effect, underscoring the importance of multi-factor development strategies. This study indicates a gradual optimization trend in the synergistic effect of pollution and carbon emission reduction in the Yellow River Basin. We should focus on strengthening these key drivers, improving collaborative management systems, and addressing spatial disparities according to local conditions.

     

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