长三角地区工业领域节水降碳协同推进研究

Research on the Synergistic Promotion of Water Conservation and Carbon Emission Reduction in the Industrial Sector of the Yangtze River Delta Region

  • 摘要: 长三角是中国经济发展最活跃、开放程度最高、创新能力最强的区域之一,产业体系最齐全、产业链条最完备,研究其工业领域水资源消耗与CO2排放关系对促进我国工业绿色低碳高质量发展转型意义重大。本文分析了长三角地区工业领域用水变化和CO2排放变化趋势,采用耦合协调度和LMDI指数分解方法进行了量化研究。结果表明:①近年来,长三角地区工业用水量在长期下降过程中出现逆转,工业领域CO2排放总量持续攀升、碳排放强度快速下降。②长三角地区节水降碳耦合协调度整体改善明显,2010—2021年由勉强协调发展以下水平改善到良好协调发展水平以上,2021年回落到初级协调发展水平。③长三角地区工业产出率是工业领域CO2排放攀升最主要的驱动因素,能源消费碳排放强度未能长期保持抑制工业CO2排放,工业用能结构存在较大优化空间;江苏省与其他3个省份差异较大,工业碳排放强度的抑制成效最为突出,用水结构效应和工业产出率是CO2排放增加的主要驱动力。④长三角地区各省份需重点做好工业能源消费结构绿色低碳转型,优先推动工业热泵和电热炉等电能替代,减少化石能源消耗,同步降低CO2排放和水资源消耗,江苏省可考虑在电力、钢铁等行业试点实施节水降碳协同控制专项行动,上海市、浙江省和安徽省可针对电力、化工等行业率先实施行业碳排放双控和用水强度管控。研究显示,长三角地区工业领域节水降碳协同推进情况有较大改善,但各省份仍面临较大挑战,需要进一步深入研究工业领域水碳关系,找准政策发力点。

     

    Abstract: The Yangtze River Delta is one of the most dynamic regions in China′s economic development, with a high degree of openness and strong innovation capabilities. It boasts a comprehensive industrial system and a well-developed industrial chain. Exploring the relationship between water consumption and CO2 emissions in this region′s industrial sector is crucial for promoting China′s transition to green, low-carbon, and high-quality development. This study analyzes trends in water use and CO2 emissions in the industrial sector of the Yangtze River Delta, utilizing the coupling coordination degree and LMDI index decomposition method for quantitative analysis. The results indicate that: (1) Industrial water consumption in the Yangtze River Delta has recently reversed a long-term decline, while total CO2 emissions in the industrial sector continue to rise, though carbon intensity has decreased rapidly in recent years. (2) From 2010 to 2021, the coupling coordination degree of water conservation and carbon emission reduction in the region has improved significantly, evolving from a barely level to the good level, but it fell back to the primary level in 2021. (3) The industrial output rate has consistently been the most important driving factor for the increase of CO2 emissions in the industrial sector. The carbon emission intensity of energy consumption has not effectively suppressed industrial CO2 emissions in the long term, indicating significant optimization potential in the industrial energy consumption structure. Jiangsu Province differs greatly from the other three provinces and cities, having the most pronounced effect on reducing industrial carbon emission intensity, with carbon emissions driven by both the water use structure and industrial output rate. (4) The provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Delta region should focus on the green and low-carbon transformation of their industrial energy consumption structure, promoting electric energy substitutes such as industrial heat pumps and electric furnaces to reduce fossil energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and water resource usage. Jiangsu Province may consider piloting special initiatives for the synergistic control of water conservation and carbon emission reduction in industries such as electricity and steel. Shanghai, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province can take the lead in implementing dual industry carbon emission controls and intensity control of water usage for industries such as power supply and chemicals. This research reveals significant improvements in the coordinated advancement of water conservation and CO2 reduction in the industrial sector of the Yangtze River Delta region, although each province still faces considerable challenges. Further in-depth research on the relationship between water and carbon in the industrial sector is needed to accurately identify policy leverage points.

     

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