基于机器学习方法的河南省城市夏季臭氧预报研究

Prediction of Summer Ozone Concentration in Henan Province Based on Machine Learning Method

  • 摘要: 臭氧(O3)是目前影响我国城市地区空气质量的主要污染物。作为全国重要的综合交通枢纽和人流物流信息流中心,河南省非常有必要持续提高环境空气O3的预报准确性。为进一步提升河南省多城市O3污染的预报准确率,优化其预报时长和效果,该研究基于机器学习方法,利用2017—2021年地面实测污染物数据和逐6 h GFS(Global Forecast System)气象场预报数据,对河南省9个城市(郑州、开封、洛阳、平顶山、安阳、焦作、三门峡、信阳、周口)训练O3浓度预报模型,对2023年夏季(6月、7月) O3浓度进行每日迭代7 d的预报,并定量评估模型预报效果。结果表明:①训练的O3预报模型对河南省9个城市未来7 d O3逐小时浓度的预报效果较好,与观测值的相关系数(r)最高可达0.91。郑州市提前1、2、3 d的O3浓度日最大8 h平均值(O3 MDA8)预报值与观测值的r分别达到0.85、0.84、0.84,较现有研究具有更优的预报效果。②模型对9个城市O3的预报表现有所差异,对河南省两个边界城市(信阳市和三门峡市)的预报效果较好,其提前6 d的O3 MDA8浓度预报值的均方根误差(RMSE)保持在27 μg/m3左右,平均相对误差(MRB)保持在18%左右;但对于在夏季O3浓度受省外传输和偏南风影响较大的安阳市,则预报效果较差。③模型提前1~3 d的预报效果较好,提前4~7 d的预报效果变差;且模型对每日14时O3小时浓度(即13:00—14:00平均浓度)的预报效果较O3 MDA8差。④O3 MDA8处于0~100、100~160、160~215、215~265 μg/m3时,模型提前1 d预报的MRB分别为21.65%、13.63%、9.63%、12.81%,具有较高的精确度。研究显示,基于大气主要污染物同步迭代的机器学习预报方法可为河南省各城市提供未来7 d及时且准确的O3预报,实现区域性O3污染事件的及时预报预警。对于预报效果较差的城市,期望未来通过增加其他O3前体物数据、使用更高时空分辨率的气象预报数据、更深入地综合气象特征以改进模型,进一步提高预报精度。

     

    Abstract: Ozone (O3) is currently the primary pollutant affecting air quality in urban areas of China. Henan Province, serving as a crucial national transportation hub and center for people flow, logistics flow, and information flow, necessitates continuous improvement in O3 forecasting accuracy. In order to further improve the forecasting accuracy of ozone pollution in multiple cities across Henan Province and optimize the forecasting duration and effectiveness, we used pollutant data and 6-hour Global Forecast System (GFS) meteorological field data during 2017-2021 to train an O3 forecast model for 9 cities in Henan Province based on the machine learning method, and the model was applied to forecast O3 concentrations in summer (June and July) of 2023. The forecasting duration of the model can reach 7 d, and the forecasting performance of the model was also evaluated quantitatively in this study. The results indicate: (1) The 7 d iteration model has good forecasting performance, with a correlation coefficient (r) between predicted and observed values reaching up to 0.91. And the values of r for the maximum daily 8-hour average ozone concentration (O3 MDA8) forecasted for Zhengzhou City in 1-3 d lead time are 0.85, 0.84 and 0.84, respectively, which demonstrates a superior forecasting performance compared to existing studies. (2) The model performance in forecasting ozone varied across different cities. It performed better in the two boundary cities of Henan Province, Xinyang and Sanmenxia, with the root mean square error (RMSE) of the O3 MDA8 in 6 d lead time remaining at about 27 μg/m3, and the mean relative bias (MRB) staying around 18%. However, the model performance is poorer for Anyang City, where summer O3 concentrations are significantly affected by external provincial transport and southerly winds. (3) The model´s forecast performance was better for a lead time of 1-3 d, but deteriorated for a lead time of 4-7 d. Moreover, its forecast performance for 1 h average concentration of O3 at 14:00 (averaged over 13:00-14:00) was worse than that for O3 MDA8. (4) For O3 MDA8 concentrations in the ranges of 0-100, 100-160, 160-215, and 215-265 μg/m3, the values of MRB for the 1 d lead time forecast are 21.65%, 13.63%, 9.63% and 12.81%, respectively, indicating a high accuracy. The results indicate that the machine learning forecasting method based on simultaneous iteration of major atmospheric pollutants can provide an accurate and timely 7 d O3 forecast for various cities in Henan Province, which is suitable for regional ozone pollution event prediction and early warning system. For cities with poorer forecast performance, it is expected that future improvements in model accuracy can be achieved by incorporating additional O3 precursor data, using meteorological forecast data with higher spatiotemporal resolution, and more comprehensively integrating meteorological features.

     

/

返回文章
返回