2000—2023年兰州城市群大气光学厚度时空变化及其环流影响研究

Spatiotemporal Variation of Aerosol Optical Depth and Circulation Drivers in Lanzhou Urban Cluster during 2000-2023

  • 摘要: 城市群是当前城市环境污染最严重的区域,兰州城市群作为高排放、强治理的典型区域,探究其大气污染突变、极端特征及其成因对防治城市群大气污染意义重大。本文基于2000—2023年MODIS的MCD19A2和MERRA-2数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验及阈值法分析了兰州城市群气溶胶光学厚度的时空变化、分类、突变特征和极端事件,并通过位势高度、风场和行星边界层高度的环流场合成探讨了突变和极端事件的环流驱动。结果表明:①兰州城市群气溶胶光学厚度介于0.26~0.38之间,呈北部、西部低以及主体高的特征,兰州城市群各城市呈边缘高、内部低的特征,与排放源的分布、治理措施及相邻城市的大气污染水平密切相关。②兰州城市群气溶胶光学厚度分类中沙尘占比(80%~95%)最大,表现为北部与西部高、东南低的特征;其次是二氧化硫和硫酸盐,有机碳、黑碳和海盐占比均较低,皆表现为东南高、西北低的特征。大气污染空间分布随时间变化波动较小。③兰州城市群气溶胶光学厚度在2018年后显著降低,该时段位势高度正异常和行星边界层高度负异常本应抑制扩散,但排放强度降低和治理措施协同主导了气溶胶光学厚度的显著降低。兰州城市群全域性重污染事件时环流条件利于大气污染扩散,导致其发生的主要原因与高排放和治理成效不佳有关。南部区域性重污染事件归因于城市群污染传输放大效应,而北部重污染事件则由地形阻滞和行星边界层高度负异常共同导致。极端清洁事件主要受到利于大气污染扩散的环流条件与排放控制协同影响。研究显示,除清洁事件外,兰州城市群大气污染主要受排放强度和治理效能调控。

     

    Abstract: Urban clusters, characterized by the most polluted areas, are key hotspots for air pollution research. The Lanzhou urban cluster, a typical region with high emissions and strict regulatory intervention, provides an ideal case study for studying pollution dynamics. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations, abrupt changes, and extreme events of aerosol optical depth (AOD) in the Lanzhou urban cluster during 2000-2023, integrating an analysis of the associated circulation drivers. The results show that: (1) AOD exhibits a distinct spatial distribution (0.26-0.38), with lower AOD values in the northern and western regions and higher levels in the main urban area, exhibiting the more pronounced changes in the urban periphery than in the stable urban center. These patterns are intrinsically linked to emission sources, inter-city pollutant transport, and management measures. (2) Dust dominates AOD compositions (80%-95%), followed by sulfate, while organic carbon, black carbon and sea salt contribute the least. Spatially, sulfate, organic carbon, black carbon, and sea salt shows a pattern of high concentrations in the southeast and low concentration in the northwest, whereas dust shows the opposite trend, with high concentrations in the north and west, and low concentrations in the southeast. Temporally, the relative contributions of these components remained consistent throughout the study period. (3) After 2018, a marked AOD decrease coincided with the positive geopotential height anomalies and negative planetary boundary layer height anomalies which theoretically hinder pollutant dispersion, contradicting expectations. This apparent paradox underscores the overriding role of emission reductions and sustained environmental governance in driving air quality improvements. The extreme heavy pollution events in the Lanzhou cluster and heavy pollution events in the southern region are associated with positive geopotential height anomalies and normal planetary boundary layer height anomalies, which theoretically favor dispersion. These episodes highlight the persistent challenges of high emissions and inadequate regulatory enforcement. In contrast, the heavy pollution in the northern regional is due to the synergistic effects of topographic confinement and negative anomalies in local planetary boundary layer height, which exacerbates pollution accumulation. Conversely, extreme clean events characterized by negative anomalies in geopotential height and planetary boundary layer height benefited from enhanced dispersion. This study shows that air pollution in the Lanzhou urban cluster is mainly influenced by emission policy interventions and modulated by regional circulation drivers.

     

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