基于ResLSTM深度学习的成都市臭氧浓度时间序列预测分析

Time Series Prediction Analysis of Ozone Concentration in Chengdu Using ResLSTM Deep Learning

  • 摘要: 近年来,我国环境空气质量总体改善,但臭氧(O3)污染加剧,威胁生态环境和人体健康。现有O3浓度预测方法难以捕捉复杂的非线性关系,且忽略时间序列的长期依赖性,预测精度有限。为此,本文基于2014—2023年成都市国控站点的逐日数据(污染物、气象数据等),构建了一种融合残差连接的长短期记忆网络模型(ResLSTM-Ozone模型),并结合SHAP可解释性方法解析特征贡献度,采用R2与均方根误差(RMSE)评估模型性能。结果表明:①2014—2023年成都市O3浓度日均值±标准差为(90.9±49.2) μg/m3,呈现显著的季节性特征,秋冬季O3浓度较低,春夏季O3超标频发,累计超标420 d。②O3浓度变化受气象与污染物协同作用驱动,温度、日照时数与O3浓度具有显著的正向相关性,超标率随着气温的升高而显著提升;相对湿度、NO2、PM2.5和CO对O3浓度表现为抑制作用,且特征贡献具有季节性差异。③ResLSTM-Ozone模型借残差结构优化梯度传递,预测精度优异(R2=0.81,RMSE=22.2 μg/m3),能有效捕捉浓度整体趋势,中低浓度段(30~120 μg/m3)预测偏差<15%,但极端峰值(>160 μg/m3)预测存在一定偏差。SHAP分析显示,温度、日照时数为核心驱动(平均绝对SHAP值居前两位,且二者正向总贡献占65%~70%),污染物(CO、PM2.5等)为负向抑制(总贡献为30%~35%),正负特征互补提升模型对复杂大气过程的拟合能力。研究显示,成都市O3污染受高温强辐射与静稳气象条件下本地光化学反应的影响,所构建的深度学习模型通过挖掘污染物与气象因子的动态交互效应达到O3浓度的精准预测,为城市O3污染的预测提供了一种可行的方法。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, although the overall ambient air quality in China has improved, ozone (O3) pollution has intensified, posing threats to both ecological environment and human health. Existing O3 concentration prediction methods often struggle to capture complex non-linear relationships and long-term dependencies in time series data, resulting in limited prediction accuracy. To address these challenges, this study develops a Residual Long Short-Term Memory Network (ResLSTM-Ozone) model, integrated with the SHAP explainability method to analyze feature contributions, using daily data (pollutants, meteorological data, etc.) from national control stations in Chengdu from 2014 to 2023. The model performance is evaluated using the R2 and root mean square error (RMSE). The results show that: (1) O3 concentrations in Chengdu show significant seasonal variation, with a daily mean ± standard deviation of (90.9±49.2) μg/m3 from 2014 to 2023. Ozone exceedances occur frequently during spring and summer, while concentrations are lower in autumn and winter, resulting in a total of 420 exceedance days over the 10-year period. (2) O3 concentration variations are driven by the synergistic effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants. Temperature and sunshine duration exhibit a significant positive correlation with O3 concentration, and the exceedance rate increases markedly with rising temperatures. In contrast, relative humidity, NO2, PM2.5, and CO exert inhibitory effects on O3 levels, with their contributions showing seasonal differences. (3) ResLSTM-Ozone Model optimizes gradient propagation through a residual structure, achieving excellent prediction accuracy (R2=0.81, RMSE=22.2 μg/m3). It effectively captures overall concentration trends, with prediction biases under 15% in low-to-medium concentration range (30-120 μg/m3), though some deviations exist when predicting extreme peaks (>160 μg/m3). SHAP analysis reveals that temperature and sunshine duration are dominant positive contributors (with average absolute SHAP values ranking among the top two, and their combined positive contributions accounting for 65%-70%), while pollutants such as CO, PM2.5 have negative inhibitory effects (total contributions of approximately 30%-35%). The complementary effects of positive and negative features enhance the model′s ability to simulate complex atmospheric processes. Overall, the study indicates that O3 pollution in Chengdu is primarily influenced by local photochemical reactions under high-temperature, strong solar radiation, and stable meteorological conditions. The constructed deep learning model accurately predicts O3 concentrations by capturing dynamic interactions between meteorological and pollutant factors, providing a feasible method for urban O3 pollution prediction.

     

/

返回文章
返回