我国城市O3污染的数值预报试验研究

Experimental Study of Numerical Forecast on Urban O3 Pollution in China

  • 摘要: 为在我国开展城市O3污染预报,新近发展了一个O3污染数值预报模式系统.它由物理、生态过程模式(包括污染源模型,下垫面参数化模型,中尺度-α气象模式,中尺度-β气象模式,湍流统计量参数化模式和干湿沉积模式)和高分辨O3化学模式(HROM)组成.用该系统对重庆、广州和济南市的O3污染作了24 h实际预报试验,结果表明:预报与实测O3质量浓度之间有相当好的一致性,API指数平均预报准确率超过85%;城市O3质量浓度表现出明显的日变化、空间分布的非均匀性和地区差异;NO2是O3的一个重要前体污染物,它们之间呈好的负相关.

     

    Abstract: In order to make forecast for urban O3 pollution in China,a numerical forecasting model system on O3 pollution is developed recently.The system consists of models on physical and biological processes (including pollution source model,parameterization model on underlying surface,meso-α meteorological model,meso-β meteorological model,parameterization model on turbulent statistics,and dry and wet deposition model) and high resolution O3 chemical model (HROM).The system was used to do O3 practical forecasting experiment for 24 h in Chongqing,Guangzhou and Jinan cities.The results showed that there is good consistency between forecasted and measured O3 mass concentrations and the average forecasting accuracy of API can exceed 85%;there are obvious diurnal variation,heterogeneity of spatial distributions,and regional difference for urban O3 mass concentrations;NO2 is an important precursory pollutant of O3,and there is a negative correlation well between NO2 and O3.

     

/

返回文章
返回