中国2020年城市生活污水排放量预测及淡水资源财富GDP指标的建立

Domestic Sewage Discharge Forecast and Countermeasures for Chinese Cities in 2020

  • 摘要: 以1985-2003年的城市生活用水量、城市生活污水排放量的统计数据及其变化趋势和变化规律、年均变化量等数据为基础,应用系统分析与模式预测相结合的方法,对中国2020年城市生活污水排放量进行警告性预测、滚动性预测和循环经济方案预测,分别为4.024×1010,3.554×1010和1.735×1010 t.经分析,推荐采用循环经济方案预测值(1.735×1010 t)为2020年中国城市生活污水预测排放量.提出了淡水资源绿色GDP指标,并以某市为例,框算了其淡水资源财富.

     

    Abstract: The amount of domestic sewage discharge in Chinese cities in 2020 was projected by integrating systems analysis and mode-forecast methods, based on the statistic data on domestic water and domestic sewage as well as data on their variation trend, variation rules and annual variation amounts from 1985 to 2003. Three kinds of projection were made, including warning projection, rolling projection and circular economy development projection. The projected domestic sewage discharge for these three cases are respectively 40.24, 35.54 and 17.35 billion t. By comparative analysis, the circular economy development projection result, 17.35 billion t, was recommended as the final projection amount. The Green GDP index of freshwater resource was proposed, and a case study in one city carried out with the estimation of its freshwater resource wealth.

     

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