Abstract:
Atmospheric mercury (Hg) emissions from anthropogenic sources in the city of Chongqing were investigated using the methods of emission factors and grey prediction. Annual Hg emissions were estimated to increase from 6.18 t in 1997 to 13.47 t in 2008, with an average annual growth rate of 9.82%. The total accumulated Hg emissions were 99.76 t. Coal combustion and cement production, which were the largest contributors, accounted for 58.34 t and 22.37 t, respectively. Based on the estimation results from 1997 to 2008, an anthropogenic emission model for atmospheric mercury GM(1, 1) was established using grey system theory to predict Hg emissions from 2009 to 2015 in Chongqing. If control measure is not adopted, the results indicate that emissions will increase on average 16.20% annually from 2009 to 2015, reaching 30.92 t in 2015.