中国电力行业多污染物控制成本与效果分析

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Multi-Pollutant Emission Reduction in Power Sector of China

  • 摘要: 利用情景分析法建立了2010—2030年我国电力行业SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5的排放控制情景,分析了发电技术结构调整、加严及进一步加严末端控制措施(脱硫、脱硝、除尘等)的减排成本和效果. 结果表明:到2030年,相对于趋势照常情景,若加严末端控制设施,将新增336×108元投资,SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5排放量可分别减少121×104、852×104、18×104、10×104 t;若进一步加严末端控制措施,将再新增25×108元投资,NOx、PM10、PM2.5可分别进一步减排45×104、23×104、15×104 t;若进行发电技术结构调整,将新增2 383×108元投资,SO2、NOx、PM10、PM2.5排放量分别减少248×104、420×104、18×104、10×104 t;2020年和2030年发电技术结构调整带来的单位污染物减排成本分别为15 374和34 239元/t,是末端控制措施加严的3倍以上,但其能提供更大的SO2减排空间并具有降低能耗和减排温室气体等协同效益. 从成本效果角度考虑,建议采用加严末端控制措施方案,同时调整发电技术结构、合理发展清洁发电技术,以为污染物减排提供更大空间.

     

    Abstract: Six emission control scenarios were developed, and the cost-effectiveness of power structure adjustment and more stringent end-pipe control measures (i.e., desulfurization, denitration, dedusting) was evaluated. The emission control scenarios included multi-pollutants including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 μm (PM10), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) emitted from power sector during 2010-2030. The results indicated that, compared with business-as-usual scenario, 33.6 billion RMB would be needed if more stringent end-of-pipe control measures were applied in 2030, and the corresponding emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5 would be 1.21,8.52,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. For additional control, an additional 2.5 billion CNH is needed, and the corresponding emission reductions of NOx, PM10, PM2.5 would be 0.45,0.23 and 0.15 million tons, respectively. The power structure adjustment would need 238.3 billion CNY, with corresponding emission reductions of SO2, NOx, PM10 and PM2.5 being 2.48,4.20,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. The costs for unit emission reduction through power structure adjustment would be 15,4 and 34,9 CNY/t in 2020 and 2030, which is over three times those associated with stringent end-pipe control measures. However, the power structure adjustment provides more emission reduction potential for SO2, and brings the co-benefit of lower energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. According to the cost-effectiveness analysis, it is suggested to apply more stringent end-pipe control measures to reduce the emissions of multi-pollutants. Meanwhile, the power structure shall be further optimized and clean power generation technology shall be promoted to provide large potential for air pollutant reduction.

     

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