Abstract:
Six emission control scenarios were developed, and the cost-effectiveness of power structure adjustment and more stringent end-pipe control measures (i.e., desulfurization, denitration, dedusting) was evaluated. The emission control scenarios included multi-pollutants including sulfur dioxide (SO
2), nitrogen oxides (NO
x), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 10 μm (PM
10), and particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 μm (PM
2.5) emitted from power sector during 2010-2030. The results indicated that, compared with business-as-usual scenario, 33.6 billion RMB would be needed if more stringent end-of-pipe control measures were applied in 2030, and the corresponding emission reductions of SO
2, NO
x, PM
10 and PM
2.5 would be 1.21,8.52,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. For additional control, an additional 2.5 billion CNH is needed, and the corresponding emission reductions of NO
x, PM
10, PM
2.5 would be 0.45,0.23 and 0.15 million tons, respectively. The power structure adjustment would need 238.3 billion CNY, with corresponding emission reductions of SO
2, NO
x, PM
10 and PM
2.5 being 2.48,4.20,0.18 and 0.10 million tons, respectively. The costs for unit emission reduction through power structure adjustment would be 15,4 and 34,9 CNY/t in 2020 and 2030, which is over three times those associated with stringent end-pipe control measures. However, the power structure adjustment provides more emission reduction potential for SO
2, and brings the co-benefit of lower energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. According to the cost-effectiveness analysis, it is suggested to apply more stringent end-pipe control measures to reduce the emissions of multi-pollutants. Meanwhile, the power structure shall be further optimized and clean power generation technology shall be promoted to provide large potential for air pollutant reduction.