Abstract:
Abstract:A resource and environment input-output model using a full industry chain, was applied to quantitatively simulate the potential economy and environment impacts of China's National Air Pollution Control Action Plan (NAPCAP). The results show that: 1) The NAPCAP will bring about 2057 billion CNY of GDP increase and 2.6 million new jobs in China. 2) Some industries will be directly promoted by the implementing of the NAPCAP, such as pollution-abatement equipment, construction, integrated technical services, boiler technology supply and new energy vehicles. Some traditional pollution-intensive industries, however, will be indirectly stimulated as well, including metal smelting and rolling, chemical products (not containing plastic and rubber), non-metallic mineral products and electric and heat power. 3) Cumulative SO
2, NO
x and soot-dust emissions will increase by 1.213,0.960 and 0.607 million tons respectively during the NAPCAP period (2012-2017). The annual average increments account for 3.8%, 2.2% and 2.2%, respectively, of the emission reduction potentials lead by the NAPCAP. The increased emissions will mostly be concentrated in industries of electric power, metal smelting and rolling, non-metallic mineral products, chemical products and petroleum processing. Moreover, cumulative coal and freshwater consumptions will increase by 0.16 billion tons and 10.82 billion tons respectively, with annual average increments accounting for 1.05% and 0.36% of their average annual consumption in China. The increased consumptions mostly lie in industries of electric power and metal smelting and rolling. In the future, China should speed up the environmental protection industry, and constantly optimize the industrial structure and further improve the efficiency of resource using and pollutant removing, especially in electric power, metal smelting and rolling.and other basic industries, to drastically reduce the potential impacts on resources and environment lead by the NAPCAP.