清洁空气行动计划实施对长三角地区PM2.5污染改善效果模拟评估

Modeling Assessment of PM2.5 Concentrations Under Implementation of Clean Air Action Plan in the Yangtze River Delta Region

  • 摘要: 为了解长三角地区清洁空气行动计划实施后区域PM2.5的改善效果,在建立2012年长三角地区大气污染物排放清单的基础上,依据上海、江苏、浙江和安徽三省一市行动计划细则,对2013—2017年各省、直辖市主要大气污染物减排量进行测算. 利用WRF(天气研究和预报模式)-CMAQ(通用多尺度空气质量模型)系统,模拟研究了清洁空气行动计划实施后可能带来的区域PM2.5改善效果. 结果表明:清洁空气行动计划涉及到的能源、工业、交通等六大领域减排任务,按照减排力度强、中、弱3种方案测算,预计长三角地区SO2减排总量分别为74.5×104、53.8×104和34.4×104 t;NOx减排总量分别为108.7×104、83.9×104和61.1×104 t;一次PM2.5减排总量分别为40.3×104、26.1×104和14.6×104 t;挥发性有机污染物(VOCs)的减排总量分别为98.2×104、57.0×104和23.5×104 t.模拟评估结果表明,在弱、中、强3种减排方案下,长三角地区国控点ρ(PM2.5)年均值预计比基准年(2013年)分别降低(4.4±1.1)、(8.1±2.4)和(12.5±3.9)μg/m3,降幅分别达到8.7%±2.2%、15.9%±4.7%和24.3%±7.7%. 长三角地区须在清洁空气行动计划实施细则指导下,控制新增量,并稳步严格推进前体物强力减排,才能实现2017年预期空气质量改善目标.

     

    Abstract: To study the PM2.5 changes after implementation of the clean air action plan in the Yangtze River Delta region, an emissions inventory for the Yangtze River Delta region in 2012 was developed, and the emissions reductions during 2013-2017 were evaluated based on measures described in the clean air action plan for Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces. The WRF-CMAQ modeling system was applied to analyze the PM2.5 changes under the emission reduction scenarios. The clean air action plan is related to six areas including energy, industry and transportation, etc. Under the three emission reduction scenarios, including strong, medium, and weak measures, the total SO2 emissions will be reduced by 74.5×104,3.8×104, and 34.4×104 t, respectively; NOx will be reduced by 108.7×104,3.9×104 and 61.1×104 t; primary PM2.5 will be reduced by 40.3×104,6.1×104 and 14.6×104 t; and VOCs will be reduced by 98.2×104,7.0×104 and 23.5×104 t. Modeling assessment shows that under the weak, medium and strong emission reduction scenarios, the annual average PM2.5 concentrations at the national observational monitoring sites within the Yangtze River Delta region will decrease by (4.4±1.1), (8.1±2.4) and (12.5±3.9) μg/m3, respectively. Compared to the base year, the average PM2.5 concentration in the Yangtze River Delta region will be reduced by 8.7%±2.2%, 15.9%±4.7% and 24.3%±7.7% on average. The results show that significant emission reductions and new source controls are required to attain the 2017 air quality improvement target.

     

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