环境规制视角下长三角地区碳排放的时空效应
Temporal and spatial effects of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of environmental regulation
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摘要: 在“双碳目标”背景下,环境规制与碳排放的关系逐渐成为学界热点。本文基于长三角地区41市的面板数据,利用碳排放系数法、环境规制综合指数对长三角41市2006-2019年的碳排放量、环境规制强度进行定量测度,通过核密度分析、GIS空间分析等方法揭示长三角地区41市环境规制强度和碳排放水平的时空格局,并运用动态空间杜宾模型(DSDM)探讨环境规制对碳排放的时空影响效应。结果表明:(1)长三角地区环境规制强度指数呈增强态势,由2006年的0.15升至2019年的1.25,核密度曲线显示环境规制强度存在空间极化现象,在空间上呈现由东南向西北转移的演变态势。(2)2006年-2019年间长三角地区碳排放水平整体呈波动上升,2006-2013年间碳排放增幅为65.07%,2013-2019年间增幅仅为4.20%;碳排放在空间上总体呈现东高西低的分布格局,2006年在沪苏地区形成碳排放高值集聚区,随后空间范围扩大并向西北方向蔓延,2013-2019年呈现中心城市向外围扩散的格局。(3)从短期效应看,环境规制强度每提升1%,将抑制本地区0.152%的碳排放,但促进邻近地区的0.062%的碳排放;从长期效应看,环境规制强度每提升1%,将抑制本地区0.254%的碳排放,并促进邻近地区0.110%的碳排放,即环境规制的长期效应大于短期效应。(4)长三角各市要充分考虑自身特质,制定合理的环境规制和差异化的低碳减排策略,以提高资源环境承载力,实现人地关系的协调发展。
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关键词:
- 环境规制 /
- 碳排放 /
- 时空效应 /
- 动态空间杜宾模型(DSDM)
Abstract: In the context of the "double carbon target", the relationship between environmental regulations and carbon emissions has gradually become a hot topic in academic circles. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, this paper quantitatively measures the carbon emissions and environmental regulation intensity of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2006 to 2019 using the carbon emission coefficient method and the comprehensive environmental regulation index, reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of environmental regulation intensity and carbon emission levels in 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region through kernel density analysis and GIS spatial analysis, and explores the spatial and temporal effects of environmental regulation on carbon emissions using the dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM).The results show that: (1) The environmental regulation intensity index in the Yangtze River Delta region has been increasing, from 0.15 in 2006 to 1.25 in 2019, and the kernel density curve shows that there is a spatial polarization of environmental regulation intensity, showing a spatial shift from the southeast to the northwest. (2) The overall level of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region fluctuated and increased between 2006 and 2019, with an increase of 65.07% between 2006 and 2013 and only 4.20% between 2013 and 2019.Carbon emissions in general show a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west, forming a high-value concentration area of carbon emissions in the Shanghai-Suzhou region in 2006, then expanding spatially and spreading to the northwest, showing a pattern of diffusion from the central cities to the periphery from 2013-2019. (3) In terms of short-term effects, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulation will suppress 0.152% of carbon emissions in the region, but promote 0.062% of carbon emissions in neighboring regions. In terms of long-term effects, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulations will suppress 0.254% of carbon emissions in the region and promote 0.110% of carbon emissions in neighboring regions, i.e., the long-term effects of environmental regulations are greater than the short-term effects. (4) Each city in the Yangtze River Delta should take into account its own characteristics and formulate reasonable environmental regulations and differentiated low-carbon emission reduction strategies, so as to improve the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and achieve a harmonious development of the relationship between people and land.
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