Abstract:
In the context of the "double carbon target", the relationship between environmental regulations and carbon emissions has gradually become a hot topic in academic circles. Based on the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, this paper quantitatively measures the carbon emissions and environmental regulation intensity of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2006 to 2019 using the carbon emission coefficient method and the comprehensive environmental regulation index, reveals the spatial and temporal patterns of environmental regulation intensity and carbon emission levels in 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region through kernel density analysis and GIS spatial analysis, and explores the spatial and temporal effects of environmental regulation on carbon emissions using the dynamic spatial Durbin model (DSDM).The results show that: (1) The environmental regulation intensity index in the Yangtze River Delta region has been increasing, from 0.15 in 2006 to 1.25 in 2019, and the kernel density curve shows that there is a spatial polarization of environmental regulation intensity, showing a spatial shift from the southeast to the northwest. (2) The overall level of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region fluctuated and increased between 2006 and 2019, with an increase of 65.07% between 2006 and 2013 and only 4.20% between 2013 and 2019.Carbon emissions in general show a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west, forming a high-value concentration area of carbon emissions in the Shanghai-Suzhou region in 2006, then expanding spatially and spreading to the northwest, showing a pattern of diffusion from the central cities to the periphery from 2013-2019. (3) In terms of short-term effects, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulation will suppress 0.152% of carbon emissions in the region, but promote 0.062% of carbon emissions in neighboring regions. In terms of long-term effects, each 1% increase in the intensity of environmental regulations will suppress 0.254% of carbon emissions in the region and promote 0.110% of carbon emissions in neighboring regions, i.e., the long-term effects of environmental regulations are greater than the short-term effects. (4) Each city in the Yangtze River Delta should take into account its own characteristics and formulate reasonable environmental regulations and differentiated low-carbon emission reduction strategies, so as to improve the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and achieve a harmonious development of the relationship between people and land.